Great couple of days of rally, but I don’t think we are in a full bull market yet. A broad market rally with energy lagging, except for BTU because of Cramer.

CELG – short
FDX – short
SLB – short
WFMI – short

Santa Claus failed to deliver a rally for us at the end of 05, but what can we expect in January 06. Is December just a consolidation and market would be ready to move higher in the new year. I certainly think it will, but at the same time I’m worry about the inverted yield curve and it may continued to occupy investor’s minds in January. It may take a very strong earning season couple with optimistic forecast by companies to really lift this market.

Don’t forget to check on your free credit reports to start the year.

Here is some good guideline on whether one should sign up for the credit monitoring service.

Do you need it? Probably not
The high cost is the main reason most people should pass on credit monitoring. The reality is that you probably don’t need it, and you almost certainly have better things to do with your money.

The exceptions:

You’ve already been the victim of serious identity theft. By “serious,” I mean someone has opened or attempted to open accounts in your name. If someone simply swiped your credit card or credit-card number, your problems likely ended when you canceled that card and you probably aren’t at increased risk of further identity theft. If someone knows enough about you to get new accounts created, you may be in for months or years of trouble.

You’re at high risk to become a victim. If instead of swiping your card, a thief got your entire wallet — including your Social Security number — your potential exposure to ID theft just skyrocketed, since that number is the key to creating new accounts. (You may be vulnerable even if you know better than to carry your Social Security card; some health insurers, universities and even states use the numbers on the ID cards they issue, despite the enormous risk to consumers.) You’re also at higher risk if a company informs you that your private financial data has been stolen, or if your circle includes some unsavory characters such as a nephew who’s a drug addict or an ex bent on revenge. Read “8 signs you may know an identity thief” for more details on how to spot potential trouble.

Someone else is paying the bill. Several firms who lost critical data to potential identity thieves have tried to make amends by offering credit monitoring to affected consumers. If you’re offered this service, find out first if you’ll be waiving your right to file a lawsuit should you sign up. If you can benefit without losing your rights, consider doing so. If you’re not offered credit monitoring by a company that lost your data, ask for it anyway.
Unless you fall into one of these camps, you may be better off ordering your own reports once or twice a year. Federal law now requires that each credit bureau give everyone who asks one free credit report; you can give yourself pretty good free monitoring simply by staggering your orders throughout the year — order your Experian report each January, your Equifax report each May and your Trans Union report each September, for example. (To learn more about your annual-report rights, click here.)

If you want more coverage, you could order (and pay for) additional sets of reports from each of the bureaus throughout the year (at $8 to $9 per report) and still spend less than you would for credit monitoring.

[MSN Money]

Dec 20 Building Permits
Dec 20 Core PPI Nov
Dec 20 Housing Starts Nov
Dec 20 PPI Nov
Dec 21 Chain Deflator
Dec 21 GDP-Final Q3
Dec 21 Crude Inventories
Dec 22 Initial Claims
Dec 22 Personal Income
Dec 22 Personal Spending
Dec 22 Leading Indicators
Dec 23 Durable Orders Nov
Dec 23 Mich Sentiment-Rev.
Dec 23 New Home Sales Nov

Best Buy will report third-quarter earnings on Tuesday morning. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call expect the electronics retailer to post earnings of 30 cents per share on sales of $7.34 billion. In the year-ago period, Best Buy reported earnings of 30 cents per share on sales of $6.65 billion.

[Forbes]

Retails will definitely affect the stock market tomorrow as we gauge the strength of this holiday shopping season. Looking for the Best Buy to also impact consumer related technology stocks like Marvell, Qualcom, Apple, Texas Instrument, etc.

All major indexes; Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq are all in consolidation and poise to go higher by year end. Nasdaq and S&P already at 4 year high and Dow’s 11,000 barrier looks like should be broken soon as we have arrived at this level four times in three years. This week’s Fed, retail, and CPI data may be the catalysts to propel the stock market higher.

Dec 12 Treasury Budget Nov
Dec 13 Retail Sales Nov
Dec 13 Retail Sales ex-auto Nov
Dec 13 Business Inventories Oct
Dec 13 FOMC policy announcement
Dec 14 Export Prices ex-ag. Nov
Dec 14 Import Prices ex-oil Nov
Dec 14 Trade Balance Oct
Dec 14 Crude Inventories 12/9
Dec 15 Core CPI Nov
Dec 15 CPI Nov
Dec 15 Initial Claims 12/10
Dec 15 NY Empire State Index Dec
Dec 15 Net Foreign Purchases
Dec 15 Capacity Utilization Nov
Dec 15 Industrial Production Nov
Dec 15 Philadelphia Fed Dec
Dec 16 Current Account Q3

Key numbers are the retail sales, Federal Reserve Interest Rate, and Consumer Price Index.

The seat owners of the New York Stock Exchange voted yesterday to buy Archipelago Holdings Inc. With this deal, it will turn the Big Board into a for-profit company. The estimated $9 billion deal was approve by a staggering 95% of the members.

This deal will form a publicly traded corporation call NYSE Group Inc., with the two previous entities becoming divisions of the new company. After the deal closes in January, the new stock symbol would be traded on the NYSE as NYX.

The members of the NYSE will each receive $300,000 plus share in 70 percent of the newly form corporation.

[BBC]

ICANN, the internet’s governing agency, may release the remaining single letter domain names this week during the conference. These names are expected to fetch millions of dollars. [Forbes]

If you’ve made your holiday list and checked it twice, chances are you’ve still forgotten some folks: the service providers who are expecting holiday tips.

End-of-the-year gratuities can show these folks that you appreciate the work they do for you and thank them for helping your life run more smoothly. This extra cash may help foster loyalty and, in a few instances, prevent future problems (like a building superintendent who might become sulky).

People who provide you service regularly but briefly
These folks typically get $10 to $30. The list here can include:

Newspaper deliverers

Parking or garage attendants

Trash collectors

Any regular delivery person (for food, laundry, overnight packages, whatever)

People you see less often but for longer periods
These are usually the ones who are working hard to tend you and yours. The holiday tip normally equals the cost of one visit, although you can reduce that to $20 or so if your patronage is sporadic.

Hairdresser or barber

Manicurist

Facialist

Personal trainer

Massage therapist

Regular after-hours babysitter (not your nanny or day care worker)

House cleaner (unless he or she is full-time, then see below)

The lawn-care crew

Pool cleaner

Pet groomer

Your employees
Anyone you employ more than a couple of days a week gets a bigger check, typically at least equal to one week’s pay. Exceptional or long service might boost the amount to two weeks’ pay or more. A small gift is often appropriate as well. This list includes:

Nannies

Full-time housekeepers

Home-care attendants

Caretakers

People who can be strategically tipped
All tips can have an element of strategy in them, but these gratuities can make a real difference in the quality of your life. Here the range varies enormously:

Building superintendent: Ask around your building. The going rate can vary from as little as $20 to $200 or more.

Doorman: Ditto. Usually the range is $10 to $100.

The bartender, wait staff or maitre d’ at a place you frequent regularly: Try $20 to $50 and see if your typical table location doesn’t improve.

[MSN Money]

Stars are align as retail sales are strong this holiday season with 14% jump in Visa card spending compare to prior year, Feds appears to be easing on the rate, energy prices are coming down, and there is light at the end of the tunnel in Iraq. All these reason points to a jolly Holiday season.

Following are the economic data due out next week.

Nov 28 Existing Home Sales Oct
Nov 29 Durable Orders Oct
Nov 29 Consumer Confidence
Nov 29 New Home Sales Oct
Nov 30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q3
Nov 30 GDP-Prel. Q3
Nov 30 Chicago PMI Nov
Nov 30 Crude Inventories
Nov 30 Fed’s Beige Book

For personal reason, I’m especially interested in the Existing and New Home Sales on Monday and Tuesday respectively. I’m currently holding position in Beazer homes and these two pieces of data will no doubt affect the home building industry. I’m expecting the data to be “weak” as the market have slowed due to interest rate.

GDP number is due out on Wednesday and expectation has been revised upward to 4% from 3.8%, partially due to Katrina reconstruction effort.

But can market really push higher above Dow 11,00 or are we going to fall back down and continue to be in this trading range. Only time will tell but for an immediate prediction the market will shoot out of the gate on Monday.

Stocks are up again today and the indexes are near 4.5 year high. Groups that are leading the rally are banks, brokerage, and technology. These are the stocks you want to see leading a big rally. With energy prices coming down and Fed appears to be near the end of rate hike, this rally looks like will continue.

I’m thankful this year because my family is healthy and my portfolio has doubled. Have a great Thanksgiving!

Plenty of bullish sentiment in stocks to push all indexes higher. The Dow is now striking distance from 11,000. Last time we were at this level was back in February. At the moment stars seems to be aligning. The inflation is low, energy prices are lower, Fed looks like it should stop raising rate soon, and companies are making money hand over fist. Maybe we could push over 11,000 this time. But then again, everything seem too good at the moment.

U.S. stocks were off their highs at noon Monday, with General Motors in focus after it announced radical new restructuring steps while Boeing was lifted as new orders for jetliners came to light.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average last was up nearly 16 points at 10,781, after earlier rising more than 30 points. In morning action, the blue-chip baromoter turned positive for 2005, but this status didn’t last as investors pared its gain.

The S&P 500 also lost some momentum, rising just 0.80 point to 1,249.07.

The Nasdaq Composite gave up morning gains and last was down more than 2 points at 2,224.85.

The news that struggling GM is taking steps to come to grips with its troubles reassured investors, but gains were limited by the fact that many market participants were absent ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.

“The market is really on hold for the moment,” said Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co. “We’ll probably get a little pre-Thanksgiving rally on Wednesday. But for now we are pausing to regroup.”

[MarketWatch]

Good CPI and PPI number help propel the stocks higher. With no major economic news next week and Thanksgiving Holiday, we will see a quiet market ahead. All major indexes have broken through resistance and bullish sentiment continues.

Here are last week’s best performing industries [MarketWatch]:
DJ US Oil Equipment & Services Inde… 4.98%
DJ US Oil Equipment, Services & Dis… 4.83%
DJ US Platinum & Precious Metals In… 4.82%
DJ US Containers & Packaging Index 4.61%
DJ US Internet Index 4.59%
DJ US Home Construction Index 4.44%
DJ US Gold Mining Index 4.38%
DJ US Railroads Index 4.21%
DJ US Nonferrous Metals Index 4.15%
DJ US Furnishings Index 4.07%

It was a great week for me as I held positions in two of the industries above, Internet (YHOO) and Home Construction (BZH).

Great earnings from Marvell, MRVL. I have reviewed MRVL in Augest. Looks like I made the right call.

Big Caps are advancing. I’m currently holding Microsoft and GE and I see them to continue to advance in 06.

Microsoft’s new Xbox 360 console has the largest slate ever of new game titles ready for launch, eye-popping graphics and an online suite of gaming services – all available this coming week. That’s months before Sony’s PlayStation 3 console, which the company maintains will come to market in the spring of 2006.

While the devices today are used primarily to play video games, both Sony and Microsoft hope to broaden the consumer appeal of their consoles by turning them into the hub of the so-called digital home — the preferred device for accessing music, videos and other digital entertainment and data from the Internet and cable systems.

For Microsoft, the Xbox is part of a broader strategy to translate its dominance of the corporate software market into a leading footprint for software and online services used in consumers’ living room.

Microsoft is rolling out the new Xbox without a so-called high-definition DVD player and before the film industry and hardware manufacturers have solved a dispute over competing standards for the new technology. The two standards – namely Toshiba-backed HD DVD and Sony-backed Blu-Ray — have greater storage capacities for high-definition video playback in home theaters.

Microsoft collects royalties for every game published for the Xbox platform, so expanding its Xbox audience beyond hard-core gamers to more-casual players is key to making its gaming push a profitable one.

By mid next year, the Xbox 360 install base may grow past 5 million, giving video game publishers greater incentive to roll out new games, potentially smash hits. Among games which could make an impact next year are the next iterations of “Halo” from Microsoft, “Grand Theft Auto” from Take-Two Interactive Software Inc, as well as movie-based game “The Godfather” from Electronic Arts Inc.

[MarketWatch]

In general no one would disagree that the real estate market is slowing down due to rise in interest rate. But this time not all home builders are created equal. During the tougher time these creme of the crop is going to rise to the top. Builders like Beazer Homes, Centex, and DR Horton are going to stand out from the rest of the group. Home building is an industry that has grown up and it is not going to rise and fall base on just interest rate. Check this interesting article about the new and improve home builders.

Surprisingly after the PPI and CPI data showed tame inflation ex energy, stocks are unable to move higher. The big caps like American Express and GM dragged the Dow down. Slight concern on higher oil.

Indexes are at resistance level and there is some reluctance from the investors to add more money into the market. There’s a wait and see attitude at the moment. Let’s see if the jobs report will be the catalyst to move market higher

Homebuilder D.R. Horton (DHI) upped its earnings forecast for the Sept. 2006-ending fiscal year after reporting a 61% rise in fourth-quarter net income to $564 million, or $1.77 a share with revenue up 45% to $5.1 billion on a 38% increase in homes closed. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call were expecting an EPS of $1.63 on revenue of $4.7 billion. The Fort Worth, Tex.-based company said fiscal year 2006 earnings now should be in a range of $5.22 to $5.32 a share on revenue of more than $15.5 billion, but kept its earnings forecast for the first quarter unchanged at between 90 cents and 95 cents a share. Analysts were looking for a first-quarter EPS of 99 cents and fiscal year EPS of $5.24.

[MarketWatch]

The general consensus is that the real estate is bursting, but maybe we are just in the mid cycle of the housing boom…

Homebuilder D.R. Horton (DHI) upped its earnings forecast for the Sept. 2006-ending fiscal year after reporting a 61% rise in fourth-quarter net income to $564 million, or $1.77 a share with revenue up 45% to $5.1 billion on a 38% increase in homes closed. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call were expecting an EPS of $1.63 on revenue of $4.7 billion. The Fort Worth, Tex.-based company said fiscal year 2006 earnings now should be in a range of $5.22 to $5.32 a share on revenue of more than $15.5 billion, but kept its earnings forecast for the first quarter unchanged at between 90 cents and 95 cents a share. Analysts were looking for a first-quarter EPS of 99 cents and fiscal year EPS of $5.24.

[MarketWatch]

The general consensus is that the real estate is bursting, but maybe we are just in the mid cycle of the housing boom…

Retailers were hit hard due to Target’s lower forecast for November. They are mainly blaming Walmart’s aggressive advertising and price cuts. At the same time, Target was hit by a downgrade to sell. The market could not overcome the negativity at the same time preoccupying over the conformation hearing for Ben Bernanke.

Today we will watch the CPI number. Any signs of serious inflation will cause the stocks to fall.

From hobby to business…

Bryant and his partner, David Dodds, started FootballGuys in 1999 as a free service that offered fantasy “cheat sheets,” newsletters that organized information about player injuries and match ups for each week’s games. The two were acquaintances and longtime fantasy players who were looking for more information than they found on traditional sports Web sites.

[ABC News]

Just to show the power of the Internet. Even a useless activity can become a valid business service.

After the market closed, Target warned the November sales would be below forecast.

Discount retailer Target Corp. said on Monday its November sales at stores open at least one year would be below its forecast of a 4 percent to 6 percent increase.

[MSN Money]

But Walmart during its conference call are very upbeat about the current quarter and the coming fiscal year 06.

…But the conference call was marked by a noticeably more upbeat assessment of the current quarter and the next fiscal year than recent calls.

“Even with the lingering impacts of the hurricanes and the impact of higher energy prices, I believe we will have a good holiday season,” Scott said.

[MarketWatch]

So, What’s going on? Who should we believe? Is Target’s lower forecast company specific? In any case, the retailers will be hurt tomorrow.

Music, video, and now books will be slice and dice to your desire.

Google Inc. is discussing a plan with at least one publisher to all consumers to rent and view online copies of books for a week, according to a media report Monday.

[MarketWatch]

Amazon Pages will dole out the data in increments–by chapter, section or even a single page. Thus, one needn’t buy an entire book–although that option will exist, too–if all one desires is, say, a recipe or other chunk of how-to info.

[Forbes]

Beginning in January, In2TV plans to offer 300 episodes per month and about 100 shows in the first year on six channels ranging from comedy to drama, The Journal said, and Warner Bros. has cleared 300 series, or about 14,000 individual episodes, for use on the service. The streaming service will be available to users with high-speed connections, The Journal said.

[MarketWatch]

Google got it and Time Warner definitely got it. Offering free shows and monetize the same way network TVs are making money right now, selling advertising. That’s where the big bucks are.

Third straight week for the Bulls! It sure smell like we are going to have that year end rally. The Dow hit the resistance on Friday at 10690. S&P 500 and Nasdaq are approaching three year high.

Next week’s key earnings and economic events

* Monday: Lowe’s is expected to have earned 77 cents per share, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by earnings tracker First Call, versus 66 cents a year ago; Wal-Mart Stores is expected to have earned 58 cents per share versus 54 cents a year ago.

* Tuesday: Home Depot is expected to have earned 68 cents per share, versus 60 cents a year ago.

* Wednesday: Applied Materials is expected to have earned 14 cents per share, versus 27 cents a year ago.

* Thursday: Hewlett-Packard is expected to have earned 46 cents per share, versus 41 cents a year ago; Walt Disney is expected to have earned 18 cents per share, versus 19 cents a year ago.

Other key events

* On Tuesday, Federal Reserve chairman nominee Ben Bernanke appears before the Senate Banking Committee to begin what is expected to be a straightforward confirmation process.

* On Tuesday, the New York Empire State index is due. The read on manufacturing in the New York area is expected to have risen to 15.0 in November from 12.1 in October, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

* October retail sales, due Tuesday, are expected to have fallen 0.6 percent, according to forecasts, after rising 0.2 percent in September. Sales excluding the volatile autos component are expected to have risen 0.3 percent in the month, after rising 1.1 percent in September.

* The Producer Price index (PPI), due Tuesday is expected to have risen 0.1 percent in October after rising 1.9 percent in September; so-called “core” PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to have risen 0.2 percent after rising 0.3 percent in September.

* The Consumer Price index (CPI), due Wednesday, is expected to have risen 0.1 percent in October, according to estimates. CPI rose 1.2 percent in September. The “core” CPI is expected to have risen 0.2 percent in the month after rising 0.1 percent in September.

* October housing starts, due Thursday, are expected to have fallen to a 2.06 million unit annual rate from a 2.108 million unit rate in September. Building permits are expected to have fallen to a 2.146 million unit annual rate in October from a 2.219 million unit rate in the previous month.

* The Philadelphia Fed index, a regional read on manufacturing, is expected to have fallen to 16.3 in November from 17.3 in October.

[CNN Money]

Most import numbers for next week would be the PPI and CPI. Strong CPI and PPI number will suggest inflation is a problem and the Federal Reserve may have to act aggressively on raising rate. This will certainly stall the stock market and continue worry on economic slowdown in 06.

“Peter F. Drucker, revered as the father of modern management for his numerous books and articles stressing innovation, entrepreneurship and strategies for dealing with a changing world, died Friday. He was 95.”

[ABC News]

It looks like lower energy prices is triggering a year end rally for the World.

Europe, Asia, and United States

A computer security firm said Thursday it had discovered the first virus that uses music publisher Sony BMG’s controversial CD copy-protection software to hide on PCs and wreak havoc.

[CNN Money]

Hedge Funds, boys club…

Where are the girls? Is it skills, personality, or discrimination against her and her kids?

not surprisingly, is the notion that you can’t run a hedge fund and raise children. “The demands are not compatible with family life,” says one former (female) analyst who joined a hedge fund. Investors put money into a hedge fund for one reason: the manager. So what happens, as one woman portfolio manager puts it, “if this person is hit by a bus?” She adds, “That’s a legitimate question. But people look at pregnant women or women with kids as if they’ve already been hit by a bus.”

[CNN Money]